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Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
* The Coming Financial Collapse of America (and Why Today's Market Bloodbath is Only a Small Taste of Things to Come...)
By Mike Adams
NewsTarget.com, January 22, 2008
Straight to the Source
Americans have always been fond of the idea of getting rich without effort by putting their money in things that produce no profits and then magically being able to ride those investments, milking them for spending cash that supports a drunken spending lifestyle. From 1998 - 2001, that profit vehicle was, of course, dot-com stocks. From 2001 to the present, it's been housing. Never mind the fact that a house produces nothing real, earns nothing real and actually loses utility with each successive year of its existence (roof repairs, anyone?) -- Americans have been convinced over the last seven years that housing prices would rise forever, allowing people to simply extract money from their home equity as if their house were some sort of giant ATM machine.
As the markets are finally demonstrating today, the "economic good times" spurred by a runaway housing price boom (and powered by astonishingly fraudulent lending practices by dishonest banks) are over. A day of reckoning has arrived, and the unwinding of this false wealth that has been propping up the U.S. economy for so many years is about to be unleashed upon the American people. (Today's stock market meltdown is only the beginning...)
That this day of economic reckoning would arrive has been obvious to me for years. On December 29, 2005, I published a two-part article series entitled, "Don't get caught in the housing bubble crash." Part two is available HERE.
In those articles, I stated:
There's no question whatsoever that this housing market will experience a correction. ...It's eventually going to come tumbling down. The only question is whether it's going to be a correction or a crash.
Friends, I believe it is time to take your money and exit the speculative real estate market. The average person doesn't understand anything about finances and never will. The average person can't even calculate a 15 percent tip at a restaurant, and he or she is buying real estate because he or she wants to double his or her money. Are you kidding me? Take your money and run; that's my advice. Run from the inflated real estate marketplace before you become another victim. These super hot, speculative housing bubbles and stock market bubbles cannot continue. They always correct. Gravity kicks in, and, eventually, things unwind. A lot of people get hurt. They lose their money. To some of those people, I say, "That's a really expensive education you just paid for." A lot of life's lessons are hard to learn, but some of them can be rather expensive.
So, it's December 2005. I'm going on the record as saying this bubble is going to pop, folks, and you can call me a pessimist or a doomsayer if you want. The fact is, if you understand math, you know I'm right. If you want to protect your own finances, you'd better take a good, hard look at this and make some decisions about what you're going to do. Do not leave yourself over-leveraged in speculative real estate. You thought you were going to retire on the beach, and it ends up you're flipping burgers as a second job to pay off what you owe the bank, and they garnish your wages on top of that. That's what happens to people who don't get out in time.
Two Years Later, the Housing Crash is On
I point out these predictions not to prove I was right, but rather to demonstrate how easy it was to see these things coming. The inevitable bursting of the housing bubble was a no brainer to any rationally-minded person, and yet everywhere I turned back in 2005, I kept hearing (from apparently intelligent folks) things like, "Housing prices have never fallen," or, "Buying a house is the best investment you can make!"
Nonsense. Any fool could see that while housing prices were rising 15 - 25% a year in some regions, there were no underlying fundamentals that would justify such an increase in the value of the property. The population, for example, wasn't increasing by 25% per year. Houses weren't becoming 25% more useful. Land wasn't becoming 25% more scarce. So what could possibly explain the rapid rise in housing prices? Easy money, of course.
That easy lending practices were being so aggressively pushed could only mean that more money was being artificially injected into the housing market, causing a fictitious rise in the value of homes based on the fact that there was too much money floating around in the hands of people who probably wouldn't qualify for such loans under normal, rigorous lending conditions. And once you realize that, it's not difficult to figure out that such lending practices will sooner or later backfire with a massive round of bankruptcies and bank repossessions.
And that, of course, will inevitably lead to a sustained drop in housing prices that, as I predicted, could ultimate see many homes drop to 50% of their peak values.
That's what's coming. I don't even have to offer a prediction of it: It's just a natural reaction to the economic practices that have been so unwisely pursued in this country for years.
The Domino Effect on the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy, as any astute financial observer has noted for years, is running on artificial wealth that has been manufactured by the Federal Reserve and swallowed by gullible consumers chasing that pot of gold at the end of the easy money rainbow. An alarmingly large percentage of U.S. economic activity is driven by consumer spending and the taxation of such activities. So when housing prices plummet and consumer bankruptcies start piling up, here's what we're going to see next:
My prediction for 2008 - 2012 is a massive wave of municipal bankruptcies, state bankruptcies and escalating national debt. We are going to see cities and states go belly up, pension programs terminated (or watered down), and financial institutions teetering on the brink of disaster.
And the worst part of it all? The only way out of this financial mess is for the Federal Reserve to steal yet more money from the American people by printing more money and hyperinflating the currency.
This is the part where the late Aaron Russo and his film Freedom to Fascism comes into play. If you haven't already watched this documentary on the massive fraud of the Federal Reserve and the IRS, watch it now at Google Video: video.google.com/videoplay
This is also the part where Ron Paul comes in (www.RonPaul2008.com), since Ron Paul is the only Presidential candidate who understands the financial destruction being caused by the Federal Reserve and has pledged to end the Fed's control over the U.S. money supply. (The Fed, by the way, is a privately-owned corporation that isn't even controlled by U.S. lawmakers.)
But given that most Americans are still likely to vote for status quo candidates and not for the radical changes required to bring economic sanity to our nation, it seems inevitable that this nation won't learn its lessons about the laws of economics until the currency is near-worthless, the population is destitute, the banks are owned by wealthy foreigners and the neighborhoods are boarded up and abandoned due to a massive wave of foreclosures.
While all that's happening, of course, the Federal Reserve is going to be trying (in vain) to print its way out of the debt implosion by creating hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air -- an act that quietly steals money from the people due to the loss of purchasing power (inflation). The amount of money needed to bail the U.S. out of its impending financial crisis will be so large that the real value of saved money in U.S. currency (i.e. dollars) could be reduced anywhere from 30% to 80%. Imagine: One day you have $25,000 in the bank that buys a car, and the next year, that same $25,000 only buys half a car. Nobody stole dollars from your account, but the Federal Reserve stole your purchasing power by inflating the currency while trying to print its way out of a national debt crisis! This is what's coming next.
The mathematically-impaired American masses, largely unable to follow basic economics, are destined to watch all this unfold with bewilderment, not knowing why their dollars are becoming worthless, but being rightly outraged by the turn of events at the same time. The MSM (Mainstream Media) will be no help, of course, since it's in on the scam. It will likely find some foreign scapegoat like blaming China's currency or Middle East oil prices for the disastrous effects of stupid domestic economic policies that have been pursued by Democrats and Republicans alike. (Of course, nobody has put the U.S. more deeply into debt than George W., largely thanks to spending on war.)
There's little question that hard economic times are coming, and not one in a hundred people has any real clue what to do about it. Not even many mainstream investment professionals, by the way -- they're the same idiots who probably told you to buy into the housing bubble in the first place, am I right? (Remember, through 2006 and 2007 when I was urging everybody to get OUT of the housing market, many investment "professionals" were urging people to keep on buying and leveraging their money in yet more housing! We'll all get rich! [Insert Howard Dean scream here...] Yaaaargh!)
So what can YOU -- the intelligent reader -- do with all this information? You're the exception to the idiocy of the masses, as is evident by the very fact that you get at least part of your news and information from non-mainstream sources. So how can you protect yourself from these hard economic times?
Here are some sensible solutions:
Solutions for Surviving the Economic Downfall of America First off, let me share with you one of the best books on what's coming in terms of the U.S. economy. (It's also loaded with financial investment recommendations in the last chapter.) The book is called The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 A Barrel by Stephen Leeb.
Leeb is right on the money when it comes to understanding economics trends (and telling the truth about what's coming). He was one of the first to predict oil would reach $100 a barrel (which it did just a few weeks ago), despite the raucous laughter from the investment community following his prediction. (He predicted that price when oil was hovering around $25 a barrel, by the way...)
His book gives outstanding investment recommendations for those who have savings or retirement funds they wish to protect from the coming economic fallout. Rather than repeating that investment advice right here, I would prefer that you get his book, read it and the follow his recommendations that best suit your risk vs. reward goals.
Secondly, let me say that the great drunken spending orgy is nearly over for everybody involved: Households, cities, states and even the U.S. federal government. Although there may be a few remaining grunts and gasps of debt spending that manage to squeeze through the cracks, the bottom line is that this debt bubble party is essentially over. This means we're going to see a contraction in spending at all levels, and a significant lull in the national economy.
You see, until now, we've actually been partying on China's money. It's true! China has been lending the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars, and the U.S. has been using that money to finance wars and lousy health care spending policies that keep the American people perpetually diseased. This nation has actually been partying like a rich banker's daughter on her 21st birthday who borrowed daddy's credit card and hit the town for a night of (finally) legalized drinking. It's largely been someone else's money that has financed our drunken-sailor spending spree, and that line of credit will soon be significantly slowed (or made a whole lot more expensive to finance).
Why? Because the United States will, I predict, lose its AAA credit rating in international debt markets. With the U.S. in debt far more than ever before -- and hemorrhaging wealth by the second through spending on war and disease (health care) -- it won't be long before the serious lenders of the world (China, Japan, Abu Dhabi, etc.) figure out that loaning money to the U.S. Treasury Department at low rates of return is an idiot's gamble. They'll hike up the rates for future loans to the U.S., and that will cause the U.S. federal government's debt spending addiction to suddenly become a more expensive habit than a D.C. Mayor's crack addiction.
Overnight, the U.S. could become a sub-prime borrower. Its banks have already landed in that category, thanks to the huge cash injections from wealthy foreigners we've seen taken on by U.S. banks in the last few weeks!
And all this, of course, means yet more contraction of the U.S. economy.
Getting back to how you can protect yourself in these hard economic times, this is a time to control your own spending. Here's what I've consistently recommended to intelligent people over the years:
1) Own your car. Don't borrow money to drive a car. It's better to own a beater than to make payments on something you can't really afford.
2) Own your home. Instead of moving to a larger home when you qualify for loans, work to pay off your existing home mortgage and own your home outright. At the very least, pay down your loan so you have 50% equity in your home, which should insulate you from all but the very worst housing bubble price drops.
3) Stop spending money on stupid overpriced things like Starbucks coffee, soda, brand-name laundry detergent, diamond jewelry and processed foods. Stretch your money by buying low-cost, bulk food ingredients like lentils, brown rice and quinoa.
4) Protect your health! Mark my words: There will be no such thing as a national health care system that's any good; not under ANY future president. Why? Because our entire health care paradigm is focused on treating disease rather than promoting health. If you're waiting around for a health care system to make you healthy, you're on a fool's errand. Take charge of your health right now and use nutrition, superfoods, sunlight, exercise and avoidance of all toxic chemicals to boost your health (and thereby insulate yourself from future health care minefields).
5) Own some productive land. Can you actually grow at least 10% of your own food? How about 25%? Owning productive land that actually generates fruits, nuts or edible herbs and plants is a form of permanent wealth. Regardless of what happens to the world economy, land that can produce food and medicine will always hold value (to yourself and others). Climate matters. An acre of land in wind-swept South Dakota isn't worth much. That same acre in Southern California or Hawaii is a whole lot more useful in terms of producing things that people value.
6) Own a good bicycle (and know how to repair it). There's no form of transportation that's more affordable. Too out of shape to pedal? No worries: Get yourself an Electric Bike from Electric Bikes Northwest (they ship all over the country). Electric bikes cost almost nothing to operate (far less than a penny per mile) and still give you a bit of exercise.
7) Don't save all your money in one bank! And certainly don't save it all in U.S. currency. Diversify. Banks may fail. The currency may even fail. Be prepared to wake up one day and see your green U.S. dollars declared worthless.
Disclaimer: I'm not offering you financial advice. Do your own research on this and make informed financial decisions using the help of financial professionals. My information here is offered as-is, with honest intent but no promise of accuracy. You'll have to decide for yourself what's really ahead in terms of a bankrupt nation and a depressed economy.
It's not all bad news, by the way...
The Good News
The good news in all this is that the U.S. government simply won't be able to afford its campaign of imperialism and war mongering against the nations of the world. Troops will eventually have to come home for one good reason: The government will no longer be able to afford to pay them! (What? No Pay? Watch all those soldiers turn around and head directly home when the money stops. The proper term for such employees is "mercenaries," by the way...)
Much the same will happen to Big Pharma and the massive medical scam right now masquerading as health care in the United States. When the U.S. government can no longer acquire easy debt money, the monopoly-priced spending on pharmaceuticals through Medicare and Medicaid will have to be halted or significantly reformed. Somewhere along the line, somebody might get the idea that we could halt health care spending by 90% in a single decade by simply investing in disease prevention and health education rather than pushing pills and disease. So the good news is that a bankrupt nation will eventually be forced to just say no to Big Pharma's monopoly-priced drugs.
So far, not bad, huh? Ending stupid wars and dangerous health care practices is definitely a step in the right direction, and it's all coming our way soon thanks to the inevitably bankruptcy of the U.S. government and the downfall of the U.S. economy. There's nothing like a sobering economic wake-up call to force nations to either reform their ways or face extinction.
From there, lots of possibilities exist. The centralized U.S. government might become so weak that regions of the country would declare their independence and begin self-rule. (Happens all the time: See the history of the Balkans, the former Soviet Union, post-Spanish rule in South America, etc.). Each region might then invent its own currency to replace the disastrous dollar. Tip: Only those currencies backed by gold reserves will ever work in the long term. Paper money simply doesn't hold value (as we're all seeing quite clearly right now...)
U.S. Spending Top Three List: War, Disease and Debt
I see 2008 - 2012 as being very tumultuous years for the United States of America. This nation is technically bankrupt right now. And do you know where the spending is going? Check this out: The top three things that the U.S. government spends money on are: (figures from 2006)
1) WAR: Department of Defense + Veterans' benefits ($580.5 billion) 2) DISEASE: Medicare + Medicaid ($614.1 billion) 3) DEBT: Debt to the people (Social Security + Welfare) and to debt holders (interest on national debt) ($1,115.4 billion)
What's fascinating about all this is that these three things take up 85% of the federal budget! (Total 2006 federal budget was $2.7 trillion.)
Yes: 85% of the federal budget goes to pay for war, disease and debt. Need I say more? That fact right there should tell you all you need to know about the future of this nation: The U.S. is about to become history. In the history of the world, no nation that spends 85% of its budget on war, disease and debt has ever survived for more than a few years. (Rome spent far less on war and still couldn't keep its republic together...)
For all those readers who agree with me on my anti-war stance, don't worry: We'll all get our wish soon! The U.S. is so bankrupt that waging war will soon no longer be an option. President Bush has done what the terrorists could have only dreamed of doing: destroying the future of an entire nation and watching it implode under the weight of its own debt. (If you thought the collapse if the Twin Towers was something, just wait until you see the fall of Wall Street...)
Sobering Economic News Wins You No Friends in a Delusional Nation
I tend to be a little early in taking precautions against financial disasters. I warned the public about the dot-com crash several years before 2001, and my warning about the housing crash was, as you can see, two years early as well. I've learned several things about making public predictions based on economic reality:
1. Nobody wants to believe your prediction when the bubble is hot and people are operating under the illusion that "We're all getting rich!" In offering sobering predictions of economic fallout stemming from the blatantly obvious financial disasters being pursued in this country, I've been called a doomsayer, a pessimist and someone who fails to understand the "new economics" (a fictitious branch of economics that's used to hype every new market boom to a gullible public).
2. The public isn't interested in financial reality. The public wants to believe whatever fictions support their current investments. If they're invested in houses, they will dismiss any news (no matter how factual) that goes against the decision they've made to hold those investments. It's a common type of investing myopia: Once an investor places his (or her) faith in a stock, an option or a house, they will selectively filter out all information that runs counter to their currently-held position. (It's sort of like the way doctors see the world of conventional medicine vs. natural medicine...)
3. Few Americans can even imagine the collapse of America. (Most Romans couldn't imagine the fall of Rome, either.) They think America is so strong and dominant on the world stage that it can weather any storm. Do you know why these people hold such myopic views? Because they watch the U.S. media, of course! There is no nation with a mainstream media capable of reporting the truth about that nation's own political or economic policies. In truth, America is just one experiment in a history of failed debtor nations spanning millennia. The number of empires in world history that have risen and fallen due to uncontrolled spending or war mongering is truly staggering (something like 100+). Like any other nation, the U.S. is not immune to the effects of stupid management (although it has achieved numerous historical milestones such as being the nation with the largest national debt in the history of the world...)
4. Being ahead of the masses in your observations of economic trends is no way to win a popularity contest. If you're 30 days ahead of the masses, you're considered a genius; but if you're two years ahead, you're considered insane. It makes me wonder about the experiences of historical geniuses like Nikola Tesla, since they were at least a hundred years ahead in their understanding of science.
5. The mainstream never agrees with you until it's all over, and then they blame you for causing it by "scaring everybody." Hilarious.
Final predictions: This financial situation won't head straight down. The Plunge Protection Team in Washington (and at the Fed) will do their best to keep propping up this economy like a Weekend At Bernie's. So you'll see short-term recoveries and stock prices jumping up and down probably all year. The markets may even reach new highs as the Fed hyperinflates the currency by injecting easy money into the system. As usual, it's all a scam. The unavoidable trend is the ultimate downfall of the debt-ridden U.S. economy and a massive recalibration of this nation's economic behavior, which may or may not include the dissolution of the nation itself. American may somehow survive this unprecedented debt crisis. Then again, it may not.
www.organicconsumers.org/artic...54.cfm
* The Coming Financial Collapse of America (and Why Today's Market Bloodbath is Only a Small Taste of Things to Come...)
By Mike Adams
NewsTarget.com, January 22, 2008
Straight to the Source
Americans have always been fond of the idea of getting rich without effort by putting their money in things that produce no profits and then magically being able to ride those investments, milking them for spending cash that supports a drunken spending lifestyle. From 1998 - 2001, that profit vehicle was, of course, dot-com stocks. From 2001 to the present, it's been housing. Never mind the fact that a house produces nothing real, earns nothing real and actually loses utility with each successive year of its existence (roof repairs, anyone?) -- Americans have been convinced over the last seven years that housing prices would rise forever, allowing people to simply extract money from their home equity as if their house were some sort of giant ATM machine.
As the markets are finally demonstrating today, the "economic good times" spurred by a runaway housing price boom (and powered by astonishingly fraudulent lending practices by dishonest banks) are over. A day of reckoning has arrived, and the unwinding of this false wealth that has been propping up the U.S. economy for so many years is about to be unleashed upon the American people. (Today's stock market meltdown is only the beginning...)
That this day of economic reckoning would arrive has been obvious to me for years. On December 29, 2005, I published a two-part article series entitled, "Don't get caught in the housing bubble crash." Part two is available HERE.
In those articles, I stated:
There's no question whatsoever that this housing market will experience a correction. ...It's eventually going to come tumbling down. The only question is whether it's going to be a correction or a crash.
Friends, I believe it is time to take your money and exit the speculative real estate market. The average person doesn't understand anything about finances and never will. The average person can't even calculate a 15 percent tip at a restaurant, and he or she is buying real estate because he or she wants to double his or her money. Are you kidding me? Take your money and run; that's my advice. Run from the inflated real estate marketplace before you become another victim. These super hot, speculative housing bubbles and stock market bubbles cannot continue. They always correct. Gravity kicks in, and, eventually, things unwind. A lot of people get hurt. They lose their money. To some of those people, I say, "That's a really expensive education you just paid for." A lot of life's lessons are hard to learn, but some of them can be rather expensive.
So, it's December 2005. I'm going on the record as saying this bubble is going to pop, folks, and you can call me a pessimist or a doomsayer if you want. The fact is, if you understand math, you know I'm right. If you want to protect your own finances, you'd better take a good, hard look at this and make some decisions about what you're going to do. Do not leave yourself over-leveraged in speculative real estate. You thought you were going to retire on the beach, and it ends up you're flipping burgers as a second job to pay off what you owe the bank, and they garnish your wages on top of that. That's what happens to people who don't get out in time.
Two Years Later, the Housing Crash is On
I point out these predictions not to prove I was right, but rather to demonstrate how easy it was to see these things coming. The inevitable bursting of the housing bubble was a no brainer to any rationally-minded person, and yet everywhere I turned back in 2005, I kept hearing (from apparently intelligent folks) things like, "Housing prices have never fallen," or, "Buying a house is the best investment you can make!"
Nonsense. Any fool could see that while housing prices were rising 15 - 25% a year in some regions, there were no underlying fundamentals that would justify such an increase in the value of the property. The population, for example, wasn't increasing by 25% per year. Houses weren't becoming 25% more useful. Land wasn't becoming 25% more scarce. So what could possibly explain the rapid rise in housing prices? Easy money, of course.
That easy lending practices were being so aggressively pushed could only mean that more money was being artificially injected into the housing market, causing a fictitious rise in the value of homes based on the fact that there was too much money floating around in the hands of people who probably wouldn't qualify for such loans under normal, rigorous lending conditions. And once you realize that, it's not difficult to figure out that such lending practices will sooner or later backfire with a massive round of bankruptcies and bank repossessions.
And that, of course, will inevitably lead to a sustained drop in housing prices that, as I predicted, could ultimate see many homes drop to 50% of their peak values.
That's what's coming. I don't even have to offer a prediction of it: It's just a natural reaction to the economic practices that have been so unwisely pursued in this country for years.
The Domino Effect on the U.S. Economy The U.S. economy, as any astute financial observer has noted for years, is running on artificial wealth that has been manufactured by the Federal Reserve and swallowed by gullible consumers chasing that pot of gold at the end of the easy money rainbow. An alarmingly large percentage of U.S. economic activity is driven by consumer spending and the taxation of such activities. So when housing prices plummet and consumer bankruptcies start piling up, here's what we're going to see next:
My prediction for 2008 - 2012 is a massive wave of municipal bankruptcies, state bankruptcies and escalating national debt. We are going to see cities and states go belly up, pension programs terminated (or watered down), and financial institutions teetering on the brink of disaster.
And the worst part of it all? The only way out of this financial mess is for the Federal Reserve to steal yet more money from the American people by printing more money and hyperinflating the currency.
This is the part where the late Aaron Russo and his film Freedom to Fascism comes into play. If you haven't already watched this documentary on the massive fraud of the Federal Reserve and the IRS, watch it now at Google Video: video.google.com/videoplay
This is also the part where Ron Paul comes in (www.RonPaul2008.com), since Ron Paul is the only Presidential candidate who understands the financial destruction being caused by the Federal Reserve and has pledged to end the Fed's control over the U.S. money supply. (The Fed, by the way, is a privately-owned corporation that isn't even controlled by U.S. lawmakers.)
But given that most Americans are still likely to vote for status quo candidates and not for the radical changes required to bring economic sanity to our nation, it seems inevitable that this nation won't learn its lessons about the laws of economics until the currency is near-worthless, the population is destitute, the banks are owned by wealthy foreigners and the neighborhoods are boarded up and abandoned due to a massive wave of foreclosures.
While all that's happening, of course, the Federal Reserve is going to be trying (in vain) to print its way out of the debt implosion by creating hundreds of billions of dollars out of thin air -- an act that quietly steals money from the people due to the loss of purchasing power (inflation). The amount of money needed to bail the U.S. out of its impending financial crisis will be so large that the real value of saved money in U.S. currency (i.e. dollars) could be reduced anywhere from 30% to 80%. Imagine: One day you have $25,000 in the bank that buys a car, and the next year, that same $25,000 only buys half a car. Nobody stole dollars from your account, but the Federal Reserve stole your purchasing power by inflating the currency while trying to print its way out of a national debt crisis! This is what's coming next.
The mathematically-impaired American masses, largely unable to follow basic economics, are destined to watch all this unfold with bewilderment, not knowing why their dollars are becoming worthless, but being rightly outraged by the turn of events at the same time. The MSM (Mainstream Media) will be no help, of course, since it's in on the scam. It will likely find some foreign scapegoat like blaming China's currency or Middle East oil prices for the disastrous effects of stupid domestic economic policies that have been pursued by Democrats and Republicans alike. (Of course, nobody has put the U.S. more deeply into debt than George W., largely thanks to spending on war.)
There's little question that hard economic times are coming, and not one in a hundred people has any real clue what to do about it. Not even many mainstream investment professionals, by the way -- they're the same idiots who probably told you to buy into the housing bubble in the first place, am I right? (Remember, through 2006 and 2007 when I was urging everybody to get OUT of the housing market, many investment "professionals" were urging people to keep on buying and leveraging their money in yet more housing! We'll all get rich! [Insert Howard Dean scream here...] Yaaaargh!)
So what can YOU -- the intelligent reader -- do with all this information? You're the exception to the idiocy of the masses, as is evident by the very fact that you get at least part of your news and information from non-mainstream sources. So how can you protect yourself from these hard economic times?
Here are some sensible solutions:
Solutions for Surviving the Economic Downfall of America First off, let me share with you one of the best books on what's coming in terms of the U.S. economy. (It's also loaded with financial investment recommendations in the last chapter.) The book is called The Coming Economic Collapse: How You Can Thrive When Oil Costs $200 A Barrel by Stephen Leeb.
Leeb is right on the money when it comes to understanding economics trends (and telling the truth about what's coming). He was one of the first to predict oil would reach $100 a barrel (which it did just a few weeks ago), despite the raucous laughter from the investment community following his prediction. (He predicted that price when oil was hovering around $25 a barrel, by the way...)
His book gives outstanding investment recommendations for those who have savings or retirement funds they wish to protect from the coming economic fallout. Rather than repeating that investment advice right here, I would prefer that you get his book, read it and the follow his recommendations that best suit your risk vs. reward goals.
Secondly, let me say that the great drunken spending orgy is nearly over for everybody involved: Households, cities, states and even the U.S. federal government. Although there may be a few remaining grunts and gasps of debt spending that manage to squeeze through the cracks, the bottom line is that this debt bubble party is essentially over. This means we're going to see a contraction in spending at all levels, and a significant lull in the national economy.
You see, until now, we've actually been partying on China's money. It's true! China has been lending the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars, and the U.S. has been using that money to finance wars and lousy health care spending policies that keep the American people perpetually diseased. This nation has actually been partying like a rich banker's daughter on her 21st birthday who borrowed daddy's credit card and hit the town for a night of (finally) legalized drinking. It's largely been someone else's money that has financed our drunken-sailor spending spree, and that line of credit will soon be significantly slowed (or made a whole lot more expensive to finance).
Why? Because the United States will, I predict, lose its AAA credit rating in international debt markets. With the U.S. in debt far more than ever before -- and hemorrhaging wealth by the second through spending on war and disease (health care) -- it won't be long before the serious lenders of the world (China, Japan, Abu Dhabi, etc.) figure out that loaning money to the U.S. Treasury Department at low rates of return is an idiot's gamble. They'll hike up the rates for future loans to the U.S., and that will cause the U.S. federal government's debt spending addiction to suddenly become a more expensive habit than a D.C. Mayor's crack addiction.
Overnight, the U.S. could become a sub-prime borrower. Its banks have already landed in that category, thanks to the huge cash injections from wealthy foreigners we've seen taken on by U.S. banks in the last few weeks!
And all this, of course, means yet more contraction of the U.S. economy.
Getting back to how you can protect yourself in these hard economic times, this is a time to control your own spending. Here's what I've consistently recommended to intelligent people over the years:
1) Own your car. Don't borrow money to drive a car. It's better to own a beater than to make payments on something you can't really afford.
2) Own your home. Instead of moving to a larger home when you qualify for loans, work to pay off your existing home mortgage and own your home outright. At the very least, pay down your loan so you have 50% equity in your home, which should insulate you from all but the very worst housing bubble price drops.
3) Stop spending money on stupid overpriced things like Starbucks coffee, soda, brand-name laundry detergent, diamond jewelry and processed foods. Stretch your money by buying low-cost, bulk food ingredients like lentils, brown rice and quinoa.
4) Protect your health! Mark my words: There will be no such thing as a national health care system that's any good; not under ANY future president. Why? Because our entire health care paradigm is focused on treating disease rather than promoting health. If you're waiting around for a health care system to make you healthy, you're on a fool's errand. Take charge of your health right now and use nutrition, superfoods, sunlight, exercise and avoidance of all toxic chemicals to boost your health (and thereby insulate yourself from future health care minefields).
5) Own some productive land. Can you actually grow at least 10% of your own food? How about 25%? Owning productive land that actually generates fruits, nuts or edible herbs and plants is a form of permanent wealth. Regardless of what happens to the world economy, land that can produce food and medicine will always hold value (to yourself and others). Climate matters. An acre of land in wind-swept South Dakota isn't worth much. That same acre in Southern California or Hawaii is a whole lot more useful in terms of producing things that people value.
6) Own a good bicycle (and know how to repair it). There's no form of transportation that's more affordable. Too out of shape to pedal? No worries: Get yourself an Electric Bike from Electric Bikes Northwest (they ship all over the country). Electric bikes cost almost nothing to operate (far less than a penny per mile) and still give you a bit of exercise.
7) Don't save all your money in one bank! And certainly don't save it all in U.S. currency. Diversify. Banks may fail. The currency may even fail. Be prepared to wake up one day and see your green U.S. dollars declared worthless.
Disclaimer: I'm not offering you financial advice. Do your own research on this and make informed financial decisions using the help of financial professionals. My information here is offered as-is, with honest intent but no promise of accuracy. You'll have to decide for yourself what's really ahead in terms of a bankrupt nation and a depressed economy.
It's not all bad news, by the way...
The Good News
The good news in all this is that the U.S. government simply won't be able to afford its campaign of imperialism and war mongering against the nations of the world. Troops will eventually have to come home for one good reason: The government will no longer be able to afford to pay them! (What? No Pay? Watch all those soldiers turn around and head directly home when the money stops. The proper term for such employees is "mercenaries," by the way...)
Much the same will happen to Big Pharma and the massive medical scam right now masquerading as health care in the United States. When the U.S. government can no longer acquire easy debt money, the monopoly-priced spending on pharmaceuticals through Medicare and Medicaid will have to be halted or significantly reformed. Somewhere along the line, somebody might get the idea that we could halt health care spending by 90% in a single decade by simply investing in disease prevention and health education rather than pushing pills and disease. So the good news is that a bankrupt nation will eventually be forced to just say no to Big Pharma's monopoly-priced drugs.
So far, not bad, huh? Ending stupid wars and dangerous health care practices is definitely a step in the right direction, and it's all coming our way soon thanks to the inevitably bankruptcy of the U.S. government and the downfall of the U.S. economy. There's nothing like a sobering economic wake-up call to force nations to either reform their ways or face extinction.
From there, lots of possibilities exist. The centralized U.S. government might become so weak that regions of the country would declare their independence and begin self-rule. (Happens all the time: See the history of the Balkans, the former Soviet Union, post-Spanish rule in South America, etc.). Each region might then invent its own currency to replace the disastrous dollar. Tip: Only those currencies backed by gold reserves will ever work in the long term. Paper money simply doesn't hold value (as we're all seeing quite clearly right now...)
U.S. Spending Top Three List: War, Disease and Debt
I see 2008 - 2012 as being very tumultuous years for the United States of America. This nation is technically bankrupt right now. And do you know where the spending is going? Check this out: The top three things that the U.S. government spends money on are: (figures from 2006)
1) WAR: Department of Defense + Veterans' benefits ($580.5 billion) 2) DISEASE: Medicare + Medicaid ($614.1 billion) 3) DEBT: Debt to the people (Social Security + Welfare) and to debt holders (interest on national debt) ($1,115.4 billion)
What's fascinating about all this is that these three things take up 85% of the federal budget! (Total 2006 federal budget was $2.7 trillion.)
Yes: 85% of the federal budget goes to pay for war, disease and debt. Need I say more? That fact right there should tell you all you need to know about the future of this nation: The U.S. is about to become history. In the history of the world, no nation that spends 85% of its budget on war, disease and debt has ever survived for more than a few years. (Rome spent far less on war and still couldn't keep its republic together...)
For all those readers who agree with me on my anti-war stance, don't worry: We'll all get our wish soon! The U.S. is so bankrupt that waging war will soon no longer be an option. President Bush has done what the terrorists could have only dreamed of doing: destroying the future of an entire nation and watching it implode under the weight of its own debt. (If you thought the collapse if the Twin Towers was something, just wait until you see the fall of Wall Street...)
Sobering Economic News Wins You No Friends in a Delusional Nation
I tend to be a little early in taking precautions against financial disasters. I warned the public about the dot-com crash several years before 2001, and my warning about the housing crash was, as you can see, two years early as well. I've learned several things about making public predictions based on economic reality:
1. Nobody wants to believe your prediction when the bubble is hot and people are operating under the illusion that "We're all getting rich!" In offering sobering predictions of economic fallout stemming from the blatantly obvious financial disasters being pursued in this country, I've been called a doomsayer, a pessimist and someone who fails to understand the "new economics" (a fictitious branch of economics that's used to hype every new market boom to a gullible public).
2. The public isn't interested in financial reality. The public wants to believe whatever fictions support their current investments. If they're invested in houses, they will dismiss any news (no matter how factual) that goes against the decision they've made to hold those investments. It's a common type of investing myopia: Once an investor places his (or her) faith in a stock, an option or a house, they will selectively filter out all information that runs counter to their currently-held position. (It's sort of like the way doctors see the world of conventional medicine vs. natural medicine...)
3. Few Americans can even imagine the collapse of America. (Most Romans couldn't imagine the fall of Rome, either.) They think America is so strong and dominant on the world stage that it can weather any storm. Do you know why these people hold such myopic views? Because they watch the U.S. media, of course! There is no nation with a mainstream media capable of reporting the truth about that nation's own political or economic policies. In truth, America is just one experiment in a history of failed debtor nations spanning millennia. The number of empires in world history that have risen and fallen due to uncontrolled spending or war mongering is truly staggering (something like 100+). Like any other nation, the U.S. is not immune to the effects of stupid management (although it has achieved numerous historical milestones such as being the nation with the largest national debt in the history of the world...)
4. Being ahead of the masses in your observations of economic trends is no way to win a popularity contest. If you're 30 days ahead of the masses, you're considered a genius; but if you're two years ahead, you're considered insane. It makes me wonder about the experiences of historical geniuses like Nikola Tesla, since they were at least a hundred years ahead in their understanding of science.
5. The mainstream never agrees with you until it's all over, and then they blame you for causing it by "scaring everybody." Hilarious.
Final predictions: This financial situation won't head straight down. The Plunge Protection Team in Washington (and at the Fed) will do their best to keep propping up this economy like a Weekend At Bernie's. So you'll see short-term recoveries and stock prices jumping up and down probably all year. The markets may even reach new highs as the Fed hyperinflates the currency by injecting easy money into the system. As usual, it's all a scam. The unavoidable trend is the ultimate downfall of the debt-ridden U.S. economy and a massive recalibration of this nation's economic behavior, which may or may not include the dissolution of the nation itself. American may somehow survive this unprecedented debt crisis. Then again, it may not.
www.organicconsumers.org/artic...54.cfm
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Wed, January 23, 2008 - 1:45 PMLOL, if that were to happen, then here are some of key words; Self sustainability and learning to become efficient with living of the grid, which needs to be done regardless -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sat, January 26, 2008 - 1:52 PM"Self sustainability and learning to become efficient with living off the grid, which needs to be done regardless"
I second that motion.
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Thu, January 24, 2008 - 3:20 PMWHEN THE STOCK MARKET CRASHES
By Paul Proctor
January 23, 2008
NewsWithViews.com
When the stock market crashes - and I mean really crashes, we won't care about Britney Spears anymore. We won't care about Lindsay Lohan, Paris Hilton, Amy Winehouse, Jessica Simpson, or anyone else in Hollywood struggling through their fame and misfortune.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about the Oscars - what the nominees will be wearing on the red carpet - the writer's strike - who crossed the picket lines - those pesky paparazzi or any of our once-favorite TV shows with or without scripts - no, not even American Idol.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about Al Gore's inconvenient truth - greenhouse gases - carbon footprints - the ozone layer - the plight of the polar bear - Bill Gates' retirement - the Clinton/Obama feud - Dr. Phil's celebrity interventions - who's on Oprah or Martin Luther King's dream.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about finding weapons of mass destruction in Iraq - finding bin Laden - spreading democracy - the oil shortage - the November elections - the EIB network - how many days Bush has left in office or whether a white man, a black man or a woman will replace him.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about the NFL playoffs - the Super Bowl - Tom Brady's bum foot, the New England Patriot's perfect season - whether Eli Manning will get a Super Bowl ring like his brother - who Tony Romo is presently dating in Dallas or whether the Tennessee Titans will keep Pacman Jones when his suspension is up.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about the power of positive thinking - the prayer of Jabez - a purpose driven life - global peace plans - the Aids epidemic - third world debt - seeker-sensitivity or which prosperity preacher is currently under investigation.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about our new year's resolutions - our expanding waistlines - clothes that don't fit - bad hair days - low-carb diets - reading nutritional labels - or keeping up with the Joneses.
When the stock market crashes, we won't care anymore about rush hour traffic - $3 a gallon gas - new car prices - where to go on vacation - where to find good sushi - asking the boss for a raise - pushing him for a promotion or just quitting altogether to find another job.
When the stock market crashes, I wonder what will be important to us? In light of recent events, it's certainly a possibility - many would say, a probability.
Could it be that, under such circumstances, we might rediscover some old-fashioned values - the faith, morals, principles, ethics and ideals of days gone by - the forgotten priorities and biblical standards of our grandparents and great grandparents who lived through the Great Depression?
When the stock market crashes - will it be a tragedy or a blessing - a loss or a gain?
I suppose it depends on where your treasure is, doesn't it?
"For where your treasure is, there will your heart be also." - Matthew 6:21
© 2008 Paul Proctor - All Rights Reserved
www.newswithviews.com/PaulPro...r142.htm -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Fri, January 25, 2008 - 6:02 PMStock values always seem to self-correct, whether or not they have been manipulated by "newsmakers" who make corporate stocks appear more or less profitable. Either a company is successful financially or it is not. Although the fundamentals behind current market values appear to have been distorted, the same principles remain. A prudent investor understands what he is investing in and the associated risks. -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sat, January 26, 2008 - 1:41 AMWell, the only stock i ever owned went "moo". -
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Poor investment decisions lead to poor results.
Sat, January 26, 2008 - 12:34 PMTo benefit as an investor one must be willing to not only wait for the company he invests in to prosper, he must also wisely choose profitable companies to invest in the first place. -
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Re: Poor investment decisions lead to poor results.
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 3:18 AMthats a re-freshing view @leksonder, but have you seen zeithgiest ? if not i can highly recomeind it, its a free neet download, just google it. What do you make of the charge in the movie that the great depression of the 30's was caused intentionly by people like Morgan Stanley and the Rockefellers to give them more power.
If the ecomoney is made so unstable by the finacial market, then surely it affects the companies performeance, good companeis can go in the red due to extremely unfovrable market conditions cant they ?
Id be interested what you and others think about that ? If we are buliding up to a big intential market colpase as Zeithgiest paints a picture of in the past, that is very troubling dont u think ? -
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Re: Poor investment decisions lead to poor results.
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 3:20 AMlet me just add troubling, because as stated above, sometimes people can forget things like heling third world poverty and the envioment and world peace then, and just want ot keep there job ! peoples motivations become more basic.
but maybe this will be different ?
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intentional collapse
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 7:33 AMFrom what I have read or heard about on this topic, the notion that this was created and is being recreated again is quite possible and likely, however the second blow will probably not be as devastating as the first since more people are aware of what's happening.
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Re: intentional collapse
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 8:20 AMI'm pleased you say this @leksonder, because i guess thats my instinct and hope. There may be some really greedy power mad people at the top (like some of the rockerfelas and stanley's etc) but there not everyone at the top. You know maybe a few bad apples make things worse, but there may be quite a few power players - both finacial bankers and govet bodes etc - that are kind of neutral in away.
if the bad apples go to far, they will recheck the balance. And ultimatly i think McKenna is probably right when he says if people try to control things too much these days, it will prbobly just bounce right back and slap them in the face.
also as you imply the world has move on a bit since the 30's.
As Will said quite amusingly in one posts maybe soem of the neo con's are trying to control and set up a new money based controling world order - but there probably not as clever as they think they are.
to some extent this bounce back from there INTENDED control could be what 2012 will be about. I really have come to the control it will be more of a BEGINING. Astrologily Davids post about the pluto square uranus 7 hits that will last between 2012 and 2015 makes sense to me, 2012 will be a kind of coming to light, and the 3 years procceding will be a swing back of the enrgies of both postive and negative. Postive is sure to win overall, it certiainly did 1940-45 - but i think this will be more subtle than back then, though possibly just as intense in SOME quaters. -
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Astrology's wild card is Uranus
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 7:02 PMThe cycle of Uranus is around 84 years. You can find correlations by following historic trends, Many patterns have been established. Just play with the math and voilà. You can be your own astrologer.
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sat, January 26, 2008 - 1:51 PMHehe, Wil.... then I guess you are safer than most!
Well done.
xo
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sat, January 26, 2008 - 1:48 PMBabylon is falling down down down.... Babylon is falling down....
I am not religeous, but the RFID chip that this current system is advocating seems much like the prophecy of St. John in Revelations where he talked about the Mark of the Beast. This beast (entity) had control over all buying and selling, and that everyone had to recieve this mark in their hand or forhead (memory?) in order to buy and sell.
Interesting prophet this John fellow. He was an Essene wasn't he? The Essenes lived very close to Nature.
Yep time to to return to the garden.
Oh what a lovely place!
We are so blessed!
xox
Lana
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 3:23 AMyes but Lana, how do you know it will return people to "the garden" look at what the gloabl depression of the 30's lead upto, nazi Germany and the world war......
im not saying this coudl go the same way, but the masses often just try to protect there job and their family at such time. YOu have to remeber many of us on this forum are a minority.
However i am hopefuly that other forces are at work now globaly, and maybe thats what u mean ?
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sat, January 26, 2008 - 11:46 PMWhile some folks are moving out from their foreclosed houses, others are making massive profits...
This is how (not for the economically faint minded!):
images.moneyandmarkets.com/774/....html -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 8:08 AMAuton, this video is a "sales pitch" to invest in foreign currencies, and yes, world currencies do constantly fluctuate, and profits can be made trading them, however only extreme examples are presented in this presentation. -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sun, January 27, 2008 - 7:22 PMI'm aware of that, Aleksonder. The world currencies are not fluctuating that much as much as the US dollar is sinking. The video is nothing else, but an idea, to invest some of your assets in something else...the stock market is swaying, affecting other investments as bonds and commodities as well. The US govt is screwing up the dollar more and more, with their every step... The Americans need to realize that their money may become worthless in a very short time.
True story, from the history. I was there:
www.rogershermansociety.org/yugo...a.htm -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Mon, January 28, 2008 - 9:30 AMSince you were there doing this transitional period, do you know what happened in Yugoslavia after this hyper-inflationary financial explosion occurred? -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Mon, January 28, 2008 - 4:20 PMWar. Economical collapse, decaying social structure and war goes hand in hand.
The death sentence came in 1999 when the NATO bombed the whole Yugoslavian infrastructure back into the Stone Age.
All the factories, bridges, roads, TV stations, even hospitals (as alleged "military complexes") were destroyed.
When the hyperinflation hit, the war was already going on...It's a big, bad, dark deja vu....History is indeed repeating itself.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yugoslav_wars
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999...Yugoslavia -
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Economic collapse
Mon, January 28, 2008 - 7:44 PMFrom the first wikipedia source listed:
"F.R. Yugoslavia, due to sanctions and isolation, is hit with, by that time, never seen hyperinflation of 3,6 million percent a year of Yugoslav dinar. This amount of inflation exceeds that experienced in the Great Depression of 1929."
Who created these "sanctions" and why they were created? -
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Re: Economic collapse
Tue, January 29, 2008 - 2:21 AMThe sanctions were created because the serbs were slaughtering croats and muslims with the aid of the central govt. of yugoslavia. -
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Re: Economic collapse
Tue, January 29, 2008 - 10:45 AMSo could "hyperinflation" ever be of concern to Americans or is the possibility of only moderate inflation more likely in the coming year(s)? -
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This is the maximum depth. Additional responses will not be threaded.
Re: Economic collapse
Tue, January 29, 2008 - 1:59 PMA long article, but worth reading...
Titanic Shift in Global Capital Market Power
The worst financial crisis in US history is just now appearing in its real dimension. It spells the end of New York’s reign as the globally dominant financial power, the heart of the power of the American Century. It is a shift whose true significance has not yet been appreciated. It soon will be.
By F. William Engdahl, 22 January 2008
We’re in the midst of the most politically significant shift in global capital flows since 1919, when New York emerged out of the ashes of the Great War to replace the City of London as the dominant global capital center. The significance of this shift, being dramatically accelerated by the ongoing crises of US banks and financial institutions and insurers as a consequence of the failed “securitization revolution,” is that it portends a de facto end of the American Century dominance of global geopolitics.
In its January 15th issue, the senior Financial Times financial journalist, Gillian Tett noted, “The US looks poised to lose its mantle as the world’s dominant financial market because of a rapid rise in the depth and maturity of markets in Europe, a study suggests.”
Tett continues, “The change may have occurred already, not least because US markets are beset by credit woes, according to research by McKinsey Global Institute… ‘We think the differential growth rates are so significant that it is quite likely Europe has overtaken the US,” said Diana Farrell, author of the report. ‘They are now neck and neck, which means exchange rates are very important. It is a real change.’”
The McKinsey assessment is actually downplaying the depth of the global shift underway since the Enron and related accounting crises and the punitive US corporate disclosure laws, especially the Sarbanes-Oxley Act made New York unattractive for major international companies to raise capital through stock listings. Until the July-August 2007 crisis in the US sub-prime asset securitization markets revealed that major UK financial institutions as well had huge exposures to the US problems, London was overshadowing New York for the first time since before World War I as the place companies turned to list their stocks. London had for years been the world’s center for foreign exchange trading in terms of volume, far exceeding Frankfurt, Tokyo or New York.
Twilight of American financial supremacy
The unfolding crisis in the US is developing with such speed and intensity that a panicked President Bush was forced to announce his proposal for a $140 billion spending stimulus and tax cut bill to try to prevent a full-blown recession or worse by the November elections.
Historically, the party in power amid an economic recession never wins. The Bush proposals, far too little and too late, like the proposal of his Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, the former Goldman Sachs banker, to postpone the reset the adjustments on billions of dollars worth of sub-prime and similar home mortgages for “five months,” i.e. just enough time to slide past November but not more, are indicative of the deepening mood of gloom around the Bush White House and Wall Street.
The problems with the declining role of the dollar in world finance, of the power of US banks globally in leading capital market trends is terminal. In the past several weeks, some of the largest US banks, including Citigroup and Merrill Lynch have had to go hat-in-hand, literally begging various Sovereign Wealth Funds in the Middle East and in Asia to inject equity capital to prevent the banks from going bankrupt. The last time Citigroup was in such dire straits was in 1989 when it was technically insolvent and had to be bailed out by seriously wealthy Saudi investor, Prince Waleed bin Talal. The Prince has announced he is back to throw more good money after the bad Citigroup, but this may be too late.
Securitization Insurance the next crisis
The next wave in the deepening US asset securitization crisis began on January 18 when Fitch Ratings announced it had stripped the AAA rating of the second largest “monoline” insurance company, Ambac Financial Group Inc., the second-largest US bond insurer. Without its AAA rating Ambac may be unable to write the top-ranked bond insurance that makes up 74% of its revenue. The downgrade throws doubt on the ratings of $556 billion in municipal and structured finance debt guaranteed by Ambac. One market adviser, Matt Fabian of Municipal Market Advisors noted, “This makes Ambac insurance toxic. The market has no tolerance for a ratings-deprived insurer.”
The Ambac downgrade is just the start of the next wave of the unraveling in US finance. MBIA Inc.’s AAA insurance rating may be cut by Moody’s. MBIA is the largest US monocline insurer. The ratings review reflects potential losses from subprime mortgage securities including collateralized debt obligations, Moody’s said. Moody’s should know. Their ratings created the entire sub-prime fraud to begin with as we will detail in a later piece.
At the heart of the game of the past several years in which Wall Street banks and financial giants made literally hundreds of billions of dollars in fees and trading profits was their ability to “securitize” low quality home mortgage loans, so-called Sub-prime and Alt-A loans, and have them rated by Moodys, Fitch and Standard & Poors as AAA. The AAA rating was essential in order that pension funds would buy the securitized bonds issued by the likes of Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and the other major Wall Street and City of London financial players.
The key to how Moody’s et al could rate such dubious mortgages as AAA lay in the insurance guarantee given in event of mortgage default by the new group of specialized Wall Street financial insurers, hence the name “monoline”—they had one line of insurance. With the rate of default on sub-prime and Alt-A mortgages exploding by the week across America, the ability of the Monoline insurers such as Ambac and MBIA to be able to meet insurance underwriting demands is now in question.
MBIA Inc. and Ambac Financial Group Inc., the two biggest bond insurers, have a more than 70% chance of going bankrupt, credit-default swaps show. Prices for contracts that pay investors if MBIA can’t meet its debt obligations imply a 71% chance the company will default in the next five years, according to a J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. valuation model. Contracts on Ambac imply 72% odds.
At least $2.4 trillion worth of securities, that is $2,400 billion (€ 1.64 trillion) are at risk to the financial insurance monoline downgrades. This is the early phase of the most severe financial crisis the United States has faced in its entire history, vastly paling 1929. It is now inevitable that the US Federal government will soon be forced to enter the “financial guarantee” business, assuming the obligations of municipal bond from the “monolines” and mortgage-backed securities insurance.
Fatally flawed models and Greenspan
The fatally-flawed models behind so many strategies that have come to permeate “contemporary finance” have completely broken down. The strategies of thousands of financial institutions - big and small - have turned infeasible.
Wall Street Risk Intermediation, the Alan Greenspan “Securitization Revolution” has essentially crashed and the risk markets essentially seized up. Across the board, the major risk operators are moving aggressively to rein in risk-taking.
Hundreds of US financial players – from small hedge funds to the major money center banks – with complex books of derivative trades, now have a very serious problem. Their “hedged books” contain supposedly offsetting risk exposures that were to have created a reasonable portfolio risk profile. The breakdown in Wall Street finance has transformed these highly leveraged “books” into essentially unmanageable “toxic waste” and financial land mines. The heart of the securitization process has been to make financial exposure less and less transparent. In good times, few cared. Now everyone cares. Banks dare not to trade with other banks fearing unknown risks.
New centers to emerge
What is most likely to emerge from the ashes of the US securitization crisis? At this point, thanks to the colossally inept policies of an American Century establishment, grouped around the Bush-Cheney regime, trying to deny reality on the world stage through exercise of brute force politics, we will likely see the emergence of several distinct centers of global financial power, rather than one dominant center as had been the case first with the City of London after the Napoleonic wars, then with Wall Street after 1919.
One center will emerge around the growing size and depth of Euro capital markets. Here Britain’s decision to keep Britain out of the Eurozone since the Pound Sterling crisis in 1992 puts the City of London at a distinct disadvantage, though huge volumes of Euro bonds and stocks are traded by London banks. The problem with the Eurozone center is that it is geopolitically inadequate to replace the US superpower. It desperately needs raw materials and for that Russia, the Middle East and Africa are essential. China is becoming essential for trade outlets to replace the US market. Eurozone leaders have but dimly perceived their new geopolitical reality. They soon will.
The second center that will emerge will be based around the huge capital accumulations of dollar surplus countries especially since 2001 and the record high oil prices. These include the so-called Sovereign Wealth Funds, state-owned investment funds similar to the Norwegian Petroleum Fund, that have billions of dollars (and increasingly Euros) in capital that is looking to invest around the globe. The largest to date is that of the Emirates, including Dubai. They are believed to hold more than $800 billion in assets today. Saudi Arabia is planning to launch a similar wealth fund. China announced its $200 billion SWF last summer, and Russia, which now holds well over $400 billion in dollar reserves, is another major capital source.
The sharp declines in global stock markets on Monday, January 21 is a tiny hint of what will unfold. The driver is the US creature called financial securitization. It was valued in the trillions of dollars, nurtured and fully backed by a coalition of interests that included Alan Greenspan’s Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, the rating agencies, the Wall Street monoline insurers, hedge funds and the banks behind them. I will detail in further installments on this site, The Financial Tsunami (see parts I and soon II), the history and the scope of what is only now becoming obvious to many as the greatest financial crisis at least since 1929-31 and in my estimation, ever.
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Re: Economic collapse
Tue, January 29, 2008 - 2:01 PMThe Financial Tsunami: Sub-Prime Mortgage Debt is but the Tip of the Iceberg
Part 1: Deutsche Bank’s painful lesson
Even experienced banker friends tell me that they think the worst of the US banking troubles are over and that things are slowly getting back to normal. What is lacking in their rosy optimism is the realization of the scale of the ongoing deterioration in credit markets globally, centered in the American asset-backed securities market, and especially in the market for CDO’s—Collateralized Debt Obligations and CMO’s—Collateralized Mortgage Obligations. By now every serious reader has heard the term “It’s a crisis in Sub-Prime US home mortgage debt.” What almost no one I know understands is that the Sub-Prime problem is but the tip of a colossal iceberg that is in a slow meltdown. I offer one recent example to illustrate my point that the “Financial Tsunami” is only beginning.
Deutsche Bank got a hard shock a few days ago when a judge in the state of Ohio in the USA made a ruling that the bank had no legal right to foreclose on 14 homes whose owners had failed to keep current in their monthly mortgage payments. Now this might sound like small beer for Deutsche Bank, one of the world’s largest banks with over €1.1 trillion (Billionen) in assets worldwide. As Hilmar Kopper used to say, “peanuts.” It’s not at all peanuts, however, for the Anglo-Saxon banking world and its European allies like Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Barclays Bank, HSBC or others. Why?
A US Federal Judge, C.A. Boyko in Federal District Court in Cleveland Ohio ruled to dismiss a claim by Deutsche Bank National Trust Company. DB’s US subsidiary was seeking to take possession of 14 homes from Cleveland residents living in them, in order to claim the assets.
Here comes the hair in the soup. The Judge asked DB to show documents proving legal title to the 14 homes. DB could not. All DB attorneys could show was a document showing only an “intent to convey the rights in the mortgages.” They could not produce the actual mortgage, the heart of Western property rights since the Magna Charta of not longer.
Again why could Deutsche Bank not show the 14 mortgages on the 14 homes? Because they live in the exotic new world of “global securitization”, where banks like DB or Citigroup buy tens of thousands of mortgages from small local lending banks, “bundle” them into Jumbo new securities which then are rated by Moody’s or Standard & Poors or Fitch, and sell them as bonds to pension funds or other banks or private investors who naively believed they were buying bonds rated AAA, the highest, and never realized that their “bundle” of say 1,000 different home mortgages, contained maybe 20% or 200 mortgages rated “sub-prime,” i.e. of dubious credit quality.
Indeed the profits being earned in the past seven years by the world’s largest financial players from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley to HSBC, Chase, and yes, Deutsche Bank, were so staggering, few bothered to open the risk models used by the professionals who bundled the mortgages. Certainly not the Big Three rating companies who had a criminal conflict of interest in giving top debt ratings. That changed abruptly last August and since then the major banks have issued one after another report of disastrous “sub-prime” losses.
A new unexpected factor
The Ohio ruling that dismissed DB’s claim to foreclose and take back the 14 homes for non-payment, is far more than bad luck for the bank of Josef Ackermann. It is an earth-shaking precedent for all banks holding what they had thought were collateral in form of real estate property.
How this? Because of the complex structure of asset-backed securities and the widely dispersed ownership of mortgage securities (not actual mortgages but the securities based on same) no one is yet able to identify who precisely holds the physical mortgage document. Oops! A tiny legal detail our Wall Street Rocket Scientist derivatives experts ignored when they were bundling and issuing hundreds of billions of dollars worth of CMO’s in the past six or seven years. As of January 2007 some $6.5 trillion of securitized mortgage debt was outstanding in the United States. That’s a lot by any measure!
In the Ohio case Deutsche Bank is acting as “Trustee” for “securitization pools” or groups of disparate investors who may reside anywhere. But the Trustee never got the legal document known as the mortgage. Judge Boyko ordered DB to prove they were the owners of the mortgages or notes and they could not. DB could only argue that the banks had foreclosed on such cases for years without challenge. The Judge then declared that the banks “seem to adopt the attitude that since they have been doing this for so long, unchallenged, this practice equates with legal compliance. Finally put to the test,” the Judge concluded, “their weak legal arguments compel the court to stop them at the gate.” Deutsche Bank has refused comment.
What next?
As news of this legal precedent spreads across the USA like a California brushfire, hundreds of thousands of struggling homeowners who took the bait in times of historically low interest rates to buy a home with often, no money paid down, and the first 2 years with extremely low interest rate in what are known as “interest only” Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs), now face exploding mortgage monthly payments at just the point the US economy is sinking into severe recession. (I regret the plethora of abbreviations used here but it is the fault of Wall Street bankers not this author).
The peak period of the US real estate bubble which began in about 2002 when Alan Greenspan began the most aggressive series of rate cuts in Federal Reserve history was 2005-2006. Greenspan’s intent, as he admitted at the time, was to replace the Dot.com internet stock bubble with a real estate home investment and lending bubble. He argued that was the only way to keep the US economy from deep recession. In retrospect a recession in 2002 would have been far milder and less damaging than what we now face.
Of course, Greenspan has since safely retired, written his memoirs and handed the control (and blame) of the mess over to a young ex-Princeton professor, Ben Bernanke. As a Princeton graduate, I can say I would never trust monetary policy for the world’s most powerful central bank in the hands of a Princeton economics professor. Keep them in their ivy-covered towers.
Now the last phase of every speculative bubble is the one where the animal juices get the most excited. This has been the case with every major speculative bubble since the Holland Tulip speculation of the 1630’s to the South Sea Bubble of 1720 to the 1929 Wall Street crash. It was true as well with the US 2002-2007 Real Estate bubble. In the last two years of the boom in selling real estate loans, banks were convinced they could resell the mortgage loans to a Wall Street financial house who would bundle it with thousands of good better and worse quality mortgage loans and resell them as Collateralized Mortgage Obligation bonds. In the flush of greed, banks became increasingly reckless of the credit worthiness of the prospective home owners. In many cases they did not even bother to check if the person was employed. Who cares? It will be resold and securitized and the risk of mortgage default was historically low.
That was in 2005. The most Sub-prime mortgages written with Adjustable Rate Mortgage contracts were written between 2005-2006, the last and most furious phase of the US bubble. Now a whole new wave of mortgage defaults is about to explode onto the scene beginning January 2008. Between December 2007 and July 1, 2008 more than $690 Billion in mortgages will face an interest rate jump according to the contract terms of the ARMs written two years before. That means market interest rates for those mortgages will explode monthly payments just as recession drives incomes down. Hundreds of thousands of homeowners will be forced to do the last resort of any homeowner: stop monthly mortgage payments.
Here is where the Ohio court decision guarantees that the next phase of the US mortgage crisis will assume Tsunami dimension. If the Ohio Deutsche Bank precedent holds in the appeal to the Supreme Court, millions of homes will be in default but the banks prevented from seizing them as collateral assets to resell. Robert Shiller of Yale, the controversial and often correct author of the book, Irrational Exuberance, predicting the 2001-2 Dot.com stock crash,estimates US housing prices could fall as much as 50% in some areas given how home prices have diverged relative to rents.
The $690 billion worth of “interest only” ARMs due for interest rate hike between now and July 2008 are by and large not Sub-prime but a little higher quality, but only just. There are a total of $1.4 trillion in “interest only” ARMs according to the US research firm, First American Loan Performance. A recent study calculates that, as these ARMs face staggering higher interest costs in the next 9 months, more than $325 billion of the loans will default leaving 1 million property owners in technical mortgage default. But if banks are unable to reclaim the homes as assets to offset the non-performing mortgages, the US banking system and a chunk of the global banking system faces a financial gridlock that will make events to date truly “peanuts” by comparison.
The immediate triggers are being described quite well: the collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market; the vulnerability of the rest of the economy to the subprime undertow, due to the “efficiency” of the markets in spreading risk; the worldwide overextension of cheap credit; the failure of large institutional investors and Wall Street brokerages to behave responsibly; and the long-term effects of the U.S. trade and fiscal deficits which are now coming home to roost.
Amazingly, some commentators have been asking “if the monetary crisis will affect the producing economy,” and whether a recession lies ahead. In reality, the U.S. producing economy has been in a recession for the last year. This is shown most clearly by the decline in M1, the portion of the money supply immediately available to people for making purchases.
The causes of the M1 decline are two-fold. One is the weak purchasing power of American consumers, at least half of whose decently-paying manufacturing jobs have been eliminated by the outsourcing, mergers, and productivity improvements during the past two decades. The other is that while many of the U.S. corporations not connected to housing have been doing all right, their success has been tied to overseas investments and sales, such as GE and GM who are heavily invested in China.
This type of business activity props up the stock prices of these global corporations but does little for the working American. The presumption that overflow earnings from stockholders will benefit the rest of our domestic economy is the essence of “trickle-down,” supply-side economics and is part of the justification for the system that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.
But as Barron’s reported earlier this year, much of the profits from the global corporations are being held as retained earnings for future growth, rather than being passed on to stockholders as dividends. Because of the heavy debt load corporations carry today, they are all in a grow-or-die mode. Again, the result is deficient purchasing power which works to negate the already dubious trickle-down effect.
The recession has been masked by four factors: 1) the government’s phony GDP numbers, where the “churning” of financial transactions masquerade as production; 2) the froth on the stock market that took the Dow Jones Average (DJA) from a little over 11,000 to a record-breaking 14,000 during a one-year period that ended with the decline that began in mid-July; 2) the propensity of the American consumer, which is now ending, to continue to buy goods and services on credit, including necessities of life like health care; and 3) modest growth in low-paying service economy jobs, which also may be coming to an end.
These lesser bubbles have mirrored the big ones that are bursting as lenders lose confidence in the ability of borrowers to repay. These are the housing bubble, affecting consumers; the acquisition bubble, affecting equity funds; and the speculation bubble, affecting hedge funds.
As the house of cards comes tumbling down, the leading question on financial websites and blogs is how deep will the decline go. Will it stop at the level of the recessions of previous decades, including 2000-2002, with a decline that is reflected in the DJA of somewhere around thirty-five percent from its peak? Or will it be the “Armageddon” scenario which would take us to depression-level conditions? Of course there are multiple possibilities based on a decline somewhere between a recession and a depression that would share some of the characteristics of each.
Muddying the waters is the fact that the DJA is much less reliable as a measure of economic health today than in the past. This is because today the vast majority of financial transactions now take place within the furtive secrecy of the equity, hedge, and derivative markets. No one really knows what is going on, except that on any given day an announcement is made that another fund or company has been wiped out.
Neither the Federal Reserve nor the U.S. government believes they have an obligation to gather or publish data that will help the public gauge the effects of these crises on their homes or jobs. Some might call this negligence a crime against democracy. In fact the Federal Reserve made tracking even more difficult by ceasing to report the M3 macro-currency numbers, but researchers have shown that growth in M3 is soaring while M1 goes down.
What appears to be happening right now is that the Federal Reserve, which oversees the U.S. economy on behalf of the financial, corporate, and government elites, is deliberately trying to squeeze as much debt out of the economy as it can. It is doing this with interest rates that are high relative to actual conditions, while trying to avoid the Armageddon scenario.
The Fed is carrying out its “soft-landing” policy by holding credit tight while introducing “liquidity” into the markets on a day-by-day basis through use of overnight “repos” and by cutting the discount rate for bank borrowing. Conservative columnists like George Will and Bob Novak watch and shake their pom-poms from the sidelines.
But “liquidity” is just a fancy name for more loans. The one thing we can be certain of is that every loan bears interest charges which someday, somehow, will have to be paid by a person who works for a living.
And if you wondered where the Fed got the $34 billion in liquidity it pumped into the markets on Friday, August 10, you weren’t the only one. The answer is that the Fed has a secret room upstairs where it keeps a large “printing press.” It’s legalized counterfeiting, but as with any counterfeit money, if people accept it in trade it acts just like the real stuff—for a while.
The danger, which many commentators are pointing to, is that the Fed will ignite a hyperinflation, which may be what is happening and may actually be intentional because it devalues debt. It’s what happens when debt is used to pay off debt and is in fact an invisible tax. Such inflation is difficult to discern, again because of the government’s rigged statistics. The most important indicator to watch is the price of oil, which doesn’t show up in “core inflation.”
But there are signs that the “soft landing” is working, such as a modest increase in U.S. exports. Reflecting the weak dollar, China is now charging more for its own exports, which will stimulate our industry here at home. And the Fed’s discount rate cut last Friday sparked a modest stock market rally.
Meanwhile, there is a debate over whether quasi-public agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should be used to spread the housing market losses across the entire taxpaying population. While society as a whole is made poorer, many individuals who might have lost their homes or jobs are spared some pain. So it’s hard to argue against it. But this type of bail-out would benefit individual homeowners more than the big banks, so the conservative politicians and commentators oppose it.
But there’s a bigger picture. The strategy of the Fed is likely to allow the recession to proceed but it does want to get the economy moving again before the downturn goes too far. In fact they probably plan to do it in time for the 2008 presidential election.
The Fed wants to see a recovery in place by then so the American public will go back to sleep and elect another politician who will steadfastly protect the privileges and powers of the magnates who, through the Fed, rule the world. Even if a new president has some progressive ideas, he or she won’t be able to alter much if a recovery has started.
The “soft landing” is a political power play.
It’s what they did in 1984, when Ronald Reagan was reelected on a campaign theme of “It’s morning in America,” after the Fed let up following the twenty percent-plus rates it used to trash the producing economy from 1979-83. The Fed did the same with the housing bubble to get George W. Bush reelected in 2004.
The financiers’ worst fear is that if things get too bad the American people might elect a reformer in 2008. So far the corporate press has kept two such reformers—Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich—in the shadows. Now that Hillary Clinton is starting to sound more progressive, they’ll attack her overtly since she is too big a player to be ignored. The Washington Post has already begun.
So we’ll see if the Fed’s plan succeeds as well over the next couple of years as it has in the past. In the meantime, what remains firmly in place is the monetarist regime through which the financiers and the Fed have ruled America for the past thirty-six years, since President Richard Nixon closed the gold window for international exchange in 1971.
During this period, we have seen several interlocking phenomena:
1) interest rates that on the whole have been much higher than the previous period of the New Deal and its aftermath, lasting into the 1960s;
2) inflation that has eroded eighty percent of the value of the dollar;
3) replacement of our producing industrial economy with a service economy dominated by high finance;
4) almost continuous warfare with a clear objective of world domination whose purpose is to shore up the dollar as the world’s reserve currency;
5) ever-deepening public, private, and household debt;
6) the ever-widening gap between rich and poor, with increasing numbers of the poor, homeless, and hungry who are left out of the nation’s economic life;
7) a crisis in the nation’s crumbling infrastructure; and
8) the constant whipsawing of over 200 million ordinary people.
It’s our citizens who are batted around like ping pong balls between alternating conditions of boom and bust as every few years many of them watch the overnight disappearance of their homes, pensions, savings, health insurance, and jobs. Added to this is the stress that has eroded the health and even life expectancy of the U.S. population.
It’s a horrible picture created by a filthy system. It’s why religious leaders for thousands of years have characterized usury, and a culture ruled by usury, as a crime against God and humanity. The monetarist rule of the Federal Reserve is legal, institutionalized usury. Over the years they have mastered all the tools of the trade, the objective of which is to continually allow the financial superstructure to skim the cream off the producing economy. Come to think of it, isn’t that how the Mafia used to work with its protection and loan-sharking rackets? -
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Re: Economic collapse
Tue, January 29, 2008 - 4:51 PMIf hyperinflation to US dollar occurs then couldn't a new currency, like the Amero be introduced to save our ship?
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Re: Economic collapse
Wed, January 30, 2008 - 4:45 AMNorth American Union reslotuion babilonian solution in the making
next thing - "oh my gosh guys, osama bin laden is in iran!!!!!" in we go
theatrix -
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Re: Economic collapse
Wed, January 30, 2008 - 1:08 PMI don't think bin laden is likely to go to iran, they hate each other. But i think it possible that israel will bomb iran with a go ahead wink and nod from the u.s., like they did in iraq in the 80's.
There are no plans anywhere for a north american union. It was a suggestion put forward by a non government task force.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nort...ican_Union
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Re: Economic collapse
Wed, January 30, 2008 - 1:26 PMwe see :)
then again wil, it's not like the world is really run by governments - more like by undercover task forces hehe.
oh and personally i think bush and whatever the guy's name is who is in the big seat in iran are em, mates. same as saddam, osama, the dude in china, north korea etc etc etc. it's just my feeling.
peace and bliss 2 u -
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Re: Economic collapse
Sun, March 9, 2008 - 11:16 AM
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Re: Economic collapse
Sun, July 6, 2008 - 9:02 PMI don't think bin laden is likely to go to iran, they hate each other
____________
bin ladens been dead for a very long time -
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Re: Economic collapse
Sun, July 6, 2008 - 9:10 PMslowly but surely.
the enemy knows this divides us further
they know we will splinter further
each for themselves...
ao: i do believe we have the problem end of things down pat
let's move on
SOLUTIONS
AND none of the softball stuff -
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Re: Economic collapse
Sun, July 6, 2008 - 11:57 PMand a big chunck of these trillions of dollars spent on the war are going to contractors while our soldiers are making by just barely.
that's always bothered me.
i had an opportunity to go work for blackwater as a canine explosive handler in iraq... protecting people. i would have made alot of money doing so. had my life been a bit different then i probably would have.
for the same job that a soldier makes, i'd make 10 or more times that.
now what's wrong with this picture?
i dunno about the economic collapse. devisating effects for sure.
just save and stock up is all i can advise. -
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Unsu...
Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 7, 2008 - 12:07 AMre: money is there any point saving money for the (post)apocalypse? n what's the deal with bank loans are they easier or harder to get these days where you're at?
will people still be playin electric guitars (post)apocalypse? -
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Unsu...
Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 9:07 AMwill people still be playin electric guitars (post)apocalypse?
Yep -
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Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 9:11 AM> will people still be playin electric guitars (post)apocalypse?
dont give up your acoustic, just in case ... -
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Unsu...
Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 10:19 AMyep, lol
but people will be playing electric guitar........one day....somewhere ;-) lol
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Unsu...
Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 11:33 AMo wow thanks for answering that after all this time Aloka Chaya! -
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Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 12:30 PMI'll be playing a Les Joe homebuilt guitar, ....more specifically an auric biomagnetic interfaced cyber-harmonic resonator, with guitar mode as an option.
The coin of the realm will not be the 'instituted mockery of innate worth' that we now are in blood bondage to.
Innate worth. Do you have it? Do you get it?
Why not? It's all around if you "Bevibe" it.
Invest in liberating, life supporting ways, to make the days sway and flow.
I'm starting with green. Grow green, the greenhouse scene, the garden green, the garden art. Turn your biology back into the green machine it's meant to be....... and technicolorize your salad salary succulence with fruit fiducial flavors. -
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Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 2:22 PM -
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Re: Economic collapse
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 5:17 PMThanks for that link Michael! BTW - thats why i love this tribe!
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Thu, February 7, 2008 - 9:44 PM"Euros Accepted" signs pop up in New York City
NEW YORK (Reuters) - In the latest example that the U.S. dollar just ain't what it used to be, some shops in New York City have begun accepting euros and other foreign currency as payment for merchandise.
"We had decided that money is money and we'll take it and just do the exchange whenever we can with our bank," Robert Chu, owner of East Village Wines, told Reuters television.
The increasingly weak U.S. dollar, once considered the king among currencies, has brought waves of European tourists to New York with money to burn and looking to take advantage of hugely favorable exchange rates.
"We didn't realize we would take so much in and there were that many people traveling or having euros to bring in. But some days, you'd be surprised at how many euros you get," Chu said.
"Now we have to get familiar with other currencies and the (British) pound and the Canadian dollars we take," he said.
While shops in many U.S. towns on the Canadian border have long accepted Canadian currency and some stores on the Texas-Mexico border take pesos, the acceptance of foreign money in Manhattan was unheard of until recently.
Not far from Chu's downtown wine emporium, Billy Leroy of Billy's Antiques & Props said the vast numbers of Europeans shopping in the neighborhood got him thinking, "My God, I should take euros in at the store."
Leroy doesn't even bother to exchange them.
"I'm happy if I take in 200 euros, because what I do is keep them," he said. "So when I go back to Paris, I don't have to go through the nightmare of going to an exchange place."
(Reporting by Angela Moore, writing by Bill Berkrot; Editing by Doina Chiacu)
www.reuters.com/article/do...98320080206 -
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Unsu...
Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Thu, February 7, 2008 - 10:04 PMoh man. here we go!
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Re: Euros
Thu, May 29, 2008 - 2:58 AMPluto was in Serpens Cauda, the ascendant of the U.S.A., when subprime triggered. Avoid moving in NYC area with Moon in Orion (the WTC position). Next subprime crisis mid July. Advice: move with Moon in Auriga, settle with Moon in Sextans. lulu.com/astrology -
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Re: Euros
Thu, May 29, 2008 - 12:31 PMhey 22, what your saying might be interesting, but i dont know what your talking about. can you ellaborate a little bit. Not interested in comming out of the pocket to get any info from that site.
thanks
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sun, July 6, 2008 - 9:00 PMA snapshot of home foreclosures exposes the continuing nightmare, nowhere near end, with California at the epicenter. On an annual basis, foreclosures ran at 112% above 1Q2008 versus Q1 of last year. The pace continues, as May national foreclosures rose by 48% versus a year ago. One might expect the pace to level off, but the increases continue. According to RealtyTrac, almost 650k properties were in some stage of foreclosure during the first quarter of 2008, an astounding ratio of 1 of every 194 households nationally. Nevada suffers a ratio of 1 in every 54 households in foreclosure. For California , the rate is 1 in every 78 households, and for Arizona 1 in every 95 households. This is a national tragedy. The rise in home foreclosures is truly frightening. A national catastrophe is unfolding. In California alone, lenders sent out 113,676 default notices in 1Q2008, up 39% from 4Q2008, and up 143% from 3Q2007.
The number of California homes lost to foreclosure in 1Q2008 was 327% above that of Q1 a year ago!!!
In the month of April, foreclosure filings were reported on more than 243,000 properties, a 65% increase compared with April 2007, according to RealtyTrac. In San Bernardino California , a friend told me that 800 foreclosures per day are being filed in the area. By the way, towns dominated by military bases suffer foreclosure rates four times worse than the national rate. California has more than its share of military base towns. This does not sound like support of troops. California generally saw home prices fall by 32% in April, versus the same month in 2007. Sales in the Golden State actually increased by 2.5%, but with heavy price cuts. Again shockingly, one in every 204 US households is in some stage of the foreclosure process, by latest figures available. Bank owned properties are soaring in number. In January 2007 they totaled 231k homes, in January 2008 it was 493k homes, and in April 2008 it was 660k homes.
Freelance credit analyst Jas Jain said of California , “Since the credit crisis began in August 2007, home prices (on a price per square foot basis) have been steadily dropping at a 20% to 40% annual rate, depending upon region. There could be some leveling off in prices for a few months before the second leg takes [housing] prices down more than 50% from their peaks in most areas by year-end . California has been in a recession since July 2007 based upon employment data, and should enter a depression in 2009 . The housing bubble kept Silicon Valley out of the depression after the tech bubble burst, causing employment to fall by 20% in 2001 to 2003. That is a depression by any definition. This time there is nothing to save the California economy.” Wow! Ouch! Batten the hatches on the Left Coast !!!
The $4.8 state billion budget cut by Gov. Schwartzeneggar in educational funding this year has hit hard, cutting 20 thousand jobs among teachers and other school employees. Many wealthier communities in California have begun initiatives to solicit private funding to aid the schools, even a separate tax levy proposed in Alameda County outside San Francisco . Home values in California are already down by 29%, from March 2008 versus last year March. That translates from median value $582k last March to $414k this March, a median average drop of $168k per home. Conditions are worse with bigger losses in Monterey , Riverside , Sacramento , High Desert , and Santa Barbara . Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac said, “ California still has not hit bottom. We have a lot of California homes that are in early stages of default that may not be salvageable, because either there is no market or financing available, or both.”
The national housing inventory problem grows worse, not better. Pollyanna analysts continue to miss the direction toward more bloated, as prices are threatened continually. The inventory for existing homes was high in March, at 9.9 months supply, and went to 11.2 months in April, a record covering 23 years. In California , the existing home inventory is at least two months greater supply than the national figure. On the existing home side, foreclosures relentlessly flood the market, aggravating supply, serving as the most significant factor weighing down housing price.
In fact, fully 40% of all sales in California come from bank & lender foreclosures. And the condominium picture is worse, as pressure comes from rising condo fees. The median national housing price has fallen to $202.3k, down 8% from a year ago. Sales activity has fallen for eight of the last nine months. A key data point is seen in the West, where sales activity rose by 6.4% but where prices fell the largest amount. Prices fell in 43 states, with California and Nevada registering the biggest declines. An opportunity for price stability might come out West where prices came down hard to encourage buyers, but it is early to conclude stability. The foreclosure process still drives the process out West. My belief is that the foreclosure process generally will continue to pressure inventory for another year at least, and push prices down further. Lending institutions are dumping their inventory, lowering price, and achieving some sales. Just because price has fallen, and sales activity has risen, does not mean that price will stabilize. Lending institutions are not seeing any reduction in their inventory, the key point! They incur costs from insurance, property tax, and maintenance, plus legal fees. They bribe homeowners to leave quietly without damage to the property, as in sabotage. Banks even call the cost ‘Anger Escrow' in their financial reporting. So time to hold properties on the books costs money, an inducement to cut price for distressed or auction sales.
The Standard & Poor Case Shiller composite index provides broad aggregate price data, but two months old. Its index of 20 metropolitan areas showed prices of existing homes fell 2.2% in March, accelerating to worse than a scary 20% annualized decline. The venerable serial bubble engineer Greenspan estimates that house prices will decline by another 10% from February levels, and perhaps 5% worse than that if the USEconomy remains weak. He expects a peak to trough total decline of 25%. Economist Paul Krugman uses a different reasonable measure, a ratio of home prices to rental rates, to arrive at a 25% overall home price decline in the overall correction. Goldman Sachs keeps its simple, stating home prices will fall 15% without a recession, and 30% with a recession. Yale Univeristy professor Robert Shiller expects a shocking 50% home price decline in the formerly hot property zones, like California , Las Vegas , south Florida , and parts of Arizona . My forecast is for a national housing price decline to the levels seen in 1990, plainly put, a double housing recession since no housing recession was permitted in 2000-2002.
In year 2005, a very intriguing sequence of events occurred. California state contractors were not properly paid in cash and instantly redeemable checks issued by the state. The state was actually in severe arrears on payments and at risk of losing contractor work. So California issued state coupons, like IOU on pieces of paper. It is unclear to what extent state employees received such coupons. Of itself, this is not so important. What struck legal and political scholars was how the state coupons were used. THEY WERE REDEEMABLE AS CASH, AS IN LEGAL TENDER, AT SUPERMARKETS AND UTILITY FIRMS. The coupons were essentially cash in restricted usage. They were a bizarre form of money created by the State of California , inflation to be sure, but money printed illegally outside the realm of the federal USGovt. Only the USGovt has the privilege of inflating the money supply and destroying the currency! The problem resolved itself in the ensuing months. Fast forward to today. Gov Schwartzeneggar announced a 10% budget cut a few months ago, with additional budget cuts in progress.
California is under great distress. Its economy is probably in a mild depression, much like Michigan and Ohio . The Governor recently announced the inability to float a state bond to cover ongoing expenses to run the state. So they resorted to floating some emergency measure bonds, using state lottery income as collateral. Gambling income is the only reliable income stream to the state, WOW! Watch for future attempts to print money via the back door, if desperation runs thick. Look for challenges to the federal privilege to print money. The implications could actually work toward strain in the union, as in USA . That is not my forecast, but one should expect strains to individual states to become acute. Some will want to print money. Imagine a California Dollar with a golden bear on it. Oh yes, the Governator declared a state of drought, which forced an emergency order of resource sharing for water, and some conservation measures. The state has enough problems, let alone drought. What is next, locusts? How about rising salinity levels in irrigated water?
If California is forced to inflate with state coupon devices, or receive massive federal emergency funds, or faces widespread defaults and bond failures, conditions might arise for broad movement into gold as refuge. Vallejo already declared bankruptcy at the town level. The process is degenerating.
community.vietfun.com/showthread.php
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sun, July 27, 2008 - 11:52 AMYou Know The Banking System's Unsound When...
1. Paulson appears on Face the Nation and says "Our banking system is a safe and a sound one." If the banking system were sound, everyone would know it (or at least believe it). There'd be no need to say it.
2. Paulson says the growing number of troubled banks "is a very manageable situation." Here's the reality: There are 90 banks on the list of problem banks. Indymac wasn't one of them - until a month before it collapsed. How many other banks will magically appear on the list a month before they collapse?
3. In a Northern Rock moment, depositors at Indymac pull out their cash. Police had to be called in to ensure order.
4. Washington Mutual (WM), another troubled bank, refused to honor Indymac cashier's checks. It's ironic that customers pulled insured deposits out of Indymac after it went into receivership. It's also ironic that they would then want to deposit those funds in Washington Mutual - the last place one would want to put them.
WaMu eventually decided it would take those checks, but with an 8-week hold. Will Washington Mutual even be around 8 weeks from now?
5. Paulson asked for "Congressional authority to buy unlimited stakes in and lend to Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE)" just days after saying "Financial institutions must be allowed to fail." Paulson's obviously reporting from the 5th dimension; only in some alternate universe would his statements make sense.
6. Former Fed Governor William Poole says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac losses make them insolvent.
7. Paulson says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are "essential" because they represent the only "functioning" part of the home loan market. The firms own or guarantee about half of the $12 trillion in U.S. mortgages. Is it possible to have a sound banking system when the only "functioning" part of the mortgage market is insolvent?
8. Bernanke testified before Congress on monetary policy, but didn't comment on either money supply or interest rates. Nowhere in his testimony did he even mention the word "money." The only time "interest rate" appeared was in relation to consumer credit card rates. How can you have any reasonable economic policy when the Fed chairman is deathly scared of interest rates and the money supply?
9. The SEC issued an order to protect those most responsible for naked short selling. As long as the investment banks and brokers were making money, naked shorting was fine and dandy. However, when the bears began using the tactic against the big financials, the existing regulation is suddenly selectively enforced, and with a vengeance.
10. The Fed takes emergency actions twice during options expirations week with regard to the discount window and rate cuts.
11. The SEC takes emergency action during options expirations week regarding short sales.
12. The Fed has implemented an alphabet soup of pawnshop lending facilities, whereby the Fed accepts garbage as collateral in exchange for Treasury bonds. Those new Fed lending facilities are called the Term Auction Facility (TAF), the Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF), and the Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF).
13. Citigroup (C), Lehman (LEH), Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS) and Merrill Lynch (MER) all have a huge percentage of Level-3 assets. Level 3 assets are commonly known as "marked to fantasy" assets. In other words, the value of those assets is significantly if not ridiculously overvalued in comparison to what they'd fetch on the open market.
It's debatable if any of the above firms will survive in their present form. Some may not survive in any form.
14. Bernanke openly solicits private equity firms to invest in banks. Is it even remotely normal for a Fed Chairman to undertake such an action?
15. Bear Stearns was taken over by JPMorgan (JPM) days after assuring investors that it had plenty of capital. Fears are high that Lehman will suffer the same fate. Worse still, the Fed was forced to guarantee the shotgun marriage between Bear Stearns and JPMorgan by providing as much as $30 billion in capital. JPMorgan is responsible for only the first $500 million. Taxpayers are on the hook for the rest.
Was this a legal action for the Fed to take? Does the Fed care?
16. Citigroup needed a cash injection from Abu Dhabi and a second one from elsewhere. After announcing it wouldn't need more capital, it's raising still more. The latest news: Citigroup will sell $500 billion in assets. To who? At what price?
17. Merrill Lynch raised $6.6 billion in capital from Kuwait and Japan, announced it didn't need to raise anymore - then raised still more capital just a few weeks later.
18. Morgan Stanley sold a 9.9% equity stake to China International. CEO John Mack made a show of not taking his bonus. How generous. Morgan Stanley fell from $72 to $37. Does CEO John Mack deserve a paycheck at all?
19. Bank of America agreed to take over Countywide Financial and twice insisted that Countrywide will add profits. Inquiring minds ask: "How the hell can Countrywide add to Bank of America earnings?" Here's how: Bank of America just announced it won't guarantee $38.1 billion in Countrywide debt. Questions over "fraudulent conveyance" are now surfacing.
20. Washington Mutual agreed to a death spiral cash infusion of $7 billion and accepted an offer of $7.85 when the stock was over $13. WaMu has since plummeted from $40 to a price near $5 after a huge rally.
21. Shares of Ambac (ABK) fell from $90 to $2.50. Shared of MBIA (MBI) fell from $70 to $5. Sadly, the top three rating agencies kept their rating on the pair at AAA nearly all the way down.
No one can believe anything the government sponsored rating agencies say.
22. In a set of moves that looked like panic, the Fed slashed interest rates from 5.25% to 2%. This was the fastest, steepest drop on record. Ironically, Bernanke spoke of inflation concerns the whole way down. The Chairman is clearly unable to tell the truth. He doesn't have to - actions speak louder than words.
23. FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair said the FDIC is looking for ways to shore up its depleted deposit fund, including charging higher premiums on riskier brokered deposits.
24. There's roughly $6.84 trillion in bank deposits, of which $2.60 trillion is uninsured. There's only $53 billion in FDIC insurance to cover $6.84 trillion in bank deposits. Indymac alone will eat up roughly $8 billion of that.
25. Of the $6.84 Trillion in bank deposits, the total cash on hand at banks is a mere $273.7 Billion. Where's the rest of the loot? The answer is: In off-balance-sheet SIVs, imploding commercial real estate deals, Alt-A liar loans, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, toggle bonds (where, amazingly, debt's paid back with more debt) and in all sorts of other silly (and arguably fraudulent) financial wizardry schemes that have bank and brokerage firms leveraged at 30 to 1 or more. Those loans can't be paid back.
And what can't be paid back will be defaulted on. If you didn't know it before, you do now: The entire US banking system is insolvent. -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Sun, July 27, 2008 - 12:56 PMauto?
i thought it best to begin to present: SOLUTIONS
if the brain'dead' or those close do not know the banks are insolvent,
then this will not help them
of course, if they cannot realize nor simply see the problem
then solution will be beyond their comprehension
unless of course it will not be that tough to do
or maybe, if they do not have to exercise
fat? well, diet
sure, if it tastes good
any solutions? -
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Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 8:42 AMSO much farther to go before it all falls apart. I doubt it will happen in my lifetime. And in the mean time the global human conscience is actually starting to acknowledge the damage it does to itself. No such thing as a quick solution, but intentions are changing and that's huge.
And if you dare to day trade, this is the ride the pros all wait for. Lot's of people getting rich right now because most are so afraid.
It's a cycle, a rhythm, and just like everything else, the outcome can be predicted.
This is a great time to LIVE. -
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Unsu...
Re: Preparing for the Coming Financial Collapse of America
Mon, July 28, 2008 - 9:03 AMI doubt it will happen in my lifetime.
You could be right there.....
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